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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2021 Oct 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 11 Oct 2021 until 13 Oct 2021
Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
11 Oct 2021084013
12 Oct 2021083032
13 Oct 2021082022

Bulletin

NOAA region 2883 produced a C2.3 flare peaking at 23:02 UT on October 10. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, with a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA 2882.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR increased from about 300 to about 400 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 1 nT and 12 nT, while its orientation was variable but predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was often below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to start upon the predicted arrival of the October 9 CME, in the second half of October 11 or early on October 12. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 12. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through October 12 and 13.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 11, 12 and 13, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6) on October 11 and 12.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux085
AK Chambon La Forêt///
AK Wingst///
Estimated Ap010
Estimated international sunspot number038 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxFineLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Nessuna

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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