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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 Feb 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Feb 2022	121	027
10 Feb 2022	119	038
11 Feb 2022	117	011

Bulletin

Only region 2939 produced C level flaring, with the strongest a C5.1 flare peaking at 21:45UT. Regions 2939 as well as 2940 meanwhile show signs of decay. Region 2941 became more complex with the development of intermediate spots, but only produced several B flares so far. While region 2942 rotated off disc, the emerging region in the South East got numbered as 2943. It is small and inactive and has a simple beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Occasional flaring at C level is expected with a small chance for an isolated M flare.

No new Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold, following the enhanced Solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain above the threshold until the CME arrival later today, which is expected to cause a drop in the electron flux levels. The 24h electron fluence was at high levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next period, and decreasing.

Solar wind showed the expected continued return towards slow Solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from around 450 km/s to under 400 km/s presently. The magnetic field magnitude was around 4nT with a variable Bz. The magnetic field phi angle indicated connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to become more enhanced from this afternoon with the expected arrival of the February 6 CME. Solar wind speed is not expected to reach over 500 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-2 and local K Belgium 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to active conditions with minor and potentially moderate storm conditions possible due to the CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	069
10cm solar flux	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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