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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2022 May 04 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 May 2022	118	008
05 May 2022	123	007
06 May 2022	128	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. An X1.1 flare was observed from beyond the east limb, peaking at 13:25UT. This region, which is just rotating onto the disk, also produced an M5.3 flare at 00:19UT. In addition, there was an M5.7 flare with a peak time of 08:59UT that originated from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3004. The rest of the regions were relatively quiet and stable. The flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and X-class flares possible.

There was a small dimming associated with the M5.7 flare originating from NOAA AR 3004. Given the location of the region near the central meridian, any associated eruption could impact Earth. Further analysis of any associated eruption will be given when the coronagraph data become available. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to exceed threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed (as recorded by ACE) decreased from values around 440 to near 350 km/s. The total magnetic field magnitude fluctuated around 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease and reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet over the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 03 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	130
10cm solar flux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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