Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 July 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JUL 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 7978 (S11W64) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. DECAY CONTINUED IN THIS REGION AND THE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION FADED DUE TO LOSS OF PENUMBRAE IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION. SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINS BUT TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE THAN SEVERAL DAYS AGO.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 7978 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS DECAY CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE X2 FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME ON 09 JUL DID NOT ARRIVE AT THE TIME EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE CME INDICATES THAT IT WAS QUITE BROAD IN LONGITUDINAL EXTENT AND TRAVELLING AT A VELOCITY OF APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 12 JUL. A 400 KM/S VELOCITY OF THE CME EQUATES TO AN ARRIVAL TIME OF NEAR 1200Z ON 12 JUL. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING LATE ON 12 JUL AND EARLY ON 13 JUL ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSIDE ON 14 JUL AND UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JUL to 14 JUL
Class M30%20%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JUL  077
  Predicted   12 JUL-14 JUL  076/074/070
  90 Day Mean        11 JUL  070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 JUL  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JUL to 14 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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