Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 July 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 JUL 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09E21) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. OVERALL, THIS REGION REMAINED STABLE. IN RECENT EUV IMAGES, A CORONAL HOLE-LIKE FEATURE IS VISIBLE JUST TO THE EAST OF REGION 7981. THIS FEATURE IS EXCEPTIONALLY DARK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. REGION 7981 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. BOTH MID AND HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED INTERMITTENT ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON 01-02 AUG. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 03 AUG.
III. Event Probabilities 01 AUG to 03 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 JUL  080
  Predicted   01 AUG-03 AUG  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        31 JUL  070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 JUL  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG  012/015-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 AUG to 03 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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