Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09W19)
IS STILL THE ONLY SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY AND REMAINS A CONSISTENT PRODUCER
OF SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY
FROM REGION 7981.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES WAS MODERATE
TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 04 AUG to 06 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 AUG 079 Predicted 04 AUG-06 AUG 078/078/076 90 Day Mean 03 AUG 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 AUG 011/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG 010/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 AUG to 06 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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