Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 AUG 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED SMALL X-RAY INCREASES OCCURRED, LIKELY FROM REGION 7984 (N29E10). THIS SPOT GROUP GREW SLIGHTLY, NOW SHOWING RUDIMENTARY PENUMBRA ON THE LEADER SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MILDLY ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 AUG  068
  Predicted   16 AUG-18 AUG  068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        15 AUG  070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 AUG  013/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  010/010-010/008-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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