Viewing archive of Monday, 26 August 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 AUG 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E43) CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS, AND PRODUCED FOUR OPTICALLY CORRELATED B-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD, THE LARGEST A B5/SF AT 26/1820Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED C0Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT 26/0835Z, DROPPEOXIMATELY 26/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED MINOR STORM INTERVALS ON DAY THREE DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A LARGE, FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 AUG to 29 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 AUG  074
  Predicted   27 AUG-29 AUG  077/078/078
  90 Day Mean        26 AUG  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 AUG  018/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  015/015-015/015-020/020
         20/20/30
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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