Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MILDLY UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS ARE
DUE OCTOBER 17.
III. Event Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 OCT 069 Predicted 16 OCT-18 OCT 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 15 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT 012/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT 010/012-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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