Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 November 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 NOV 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A VERY LONG DURATION B9 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 26/2048-27/0456Z. OPTICAL OBSERVATORIES OBSERVED BRIGHT KNOTS OF MATERIAL FLOWING ABOVE THE WEST LIMB NEAR N05 WHERE REGION 7997 IS LOCATED. SPACE-BASED CORONAGRAPH IMAGES NEAR THE PEAK OF THE EVENT SHOWED A LARGE (GREATER THAN 1 SOLAR DIAMETER) CORONAL MASS EJECTION OVER THE WEST LIMB. YOHKOH X-RAY IMAGES IN THE DECAY OF THE EVENT SHOWED A LARGE, POST-CME ARCADE IN THAT LOCATION. REGION 7999 (S05W21) WAS STABLE AND WEAK MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. REGION 7999 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED IN THE 27/0300-0600Z PERIOD. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY (500-575 KM/S) STREAM IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 28 NOV to 30 NOV
Class M30%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 NOV  103
  Predicted   28 NOV-30 NOV  100/098/096
  90 Day Mean        27 NOV  072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 NOV  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 NOV to 30 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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