Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 February 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8016 (S20W58), NOW A SINGLE AXX SPOT, IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE, ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE CME EVENT OBSERVED ON 07 FEBRUARY. HIGH LATITUDES SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING DURING THAT PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 10 FEB to 12 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 FEB 073
  Predicted   10 FEB-12 FEB  074/074/072
  90 Day Mean        09 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 FEB  020/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 FEB  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 FEB-12 FEB  010/010-025/027-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 FEB to 12 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%30%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%40%
Minor storm10%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%15%15%

All times in UTC

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