Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 March 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 MAR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 1035Z. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE NO TIME-COINCIDENT OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE, A LIKELY CANDIDATE IS NEW REGION 8026 (S26E73). THIS REGION ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL BUT ACTIVE BXO BETA SUNSPOT GROUP, AND WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8026 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FROM 26/2100 THROUGH 27/0100Z, BUT BECAME REMARKABLY QUIET AFTER 27/0100Z. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM 27/0100-27/2100Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME VERY BRIEF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVEL CONDITIONS AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES BETWEEN 0700-1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS (GREATER THAN 1000 PFU) DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 MAR 072
  Predicted   28 MAR-30 MAR  073/074/075
  90 Day Mean        27 MAR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR  014/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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