Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF A SINGLE C1 X-RAY BURST IN REGION 8026 (S23W91) IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BRIGHT SURGE ON THE LIMB. THIS REGION HAS ROTATED OFF THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8027 (S28W13) IS STILL DECAYING AND IS NOW A SIMPLE BXO SPOT GROUP. NEW REGION 8029 (N24W19), A CRO SPOT GROUP,WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8027 STILL HAS A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8029 HAS POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY TWO IN RESPONSE TO THE C6/3N FLARE AND CME IN REGION 8027 ON 7 APRIL. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR STORMING WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 APR 078
  Predicted   10 APR-12 APR  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        09 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR  015/030-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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