Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8038 (N21W06) AND 8039 (N23W65), REMAIN STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 MAY 072
  Predicted   12 MAY-14 MAY  073/074/074
  90 Day Mean        11 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  005/010-010/008-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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