Viewing archive of Friday, 23 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8040 (N07W40) DECAYED AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A SMALL REGION ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8046 (S26E68). THE LARGE PROMINENCES ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB ON 22 MAY FADED SOMETIME BEFORE 23/1500Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE CME ON 21 MAY HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THE TIME INITIALLY EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 24 MAY AND EARLY 25 MAY. ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE CME WILL IMPACT THE EARTH IS HIGH DUE TO THE NATURE OF SPACE OBSERVATIONS OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF IMPACT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 26 MAY AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 MAY 076
  Predicted   24 MAY-26 MAY  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        23 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY  025/025-015/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm25%20%05%
Major-severe storm20%15%01%

All times in UTC

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