Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 July 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUL 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NINE-DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N15W12 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 15/0511-1227Z. THE VISIBLE DISK IS CURRENTLY SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE THE PAST 24 HOURS. LIMITED OBSERVATIONS OF INTERPLANETARY BZ SHOW A STRONG MAGNETIC FIELD CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW TRANSIENT FEATURE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH PREDOMINATLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 JUL 069
  Predicted   16 JUL-18 JUL  069/069/070
  90 Day Mean        15 JUL 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  005/008-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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