Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 July 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUL 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NINE-DEGREE FILAMENT
NEAR N15W12 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 15/0511-1227Z. THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LIMITED OBSERVATIONS OF INTERPLANETARY BZ SHOW A STRONG MAGNETIC
FIELD CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW TRANSIENT FEATURE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY OF THE
FORECAST WITH PREDOMINATLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THE SECOND DAY OF
THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 JUL 069 Predicted 16 JUL-18 JUL 069/069/070 90 Day Mean 15 JUL 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL 010/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL 005/008-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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