Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8076 (N27W64)
DECAYED DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS.
REGION 8083 (S27E42) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE AND
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUB-FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8083 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AS GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS BETWEEN 03/2100-04/0900Z. ISOLATED MAJOR
STORMING WAS OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON 05 SEP.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 SEP 093 Predicted 05 SEP-07 SEP 093/090/085 90 Day Mean 04 SEP 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP 018/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP 019/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP 010/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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