Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED WITH ONLY ONE OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 8084 WHICH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB OF THE SUN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARING EXISTS FROM REGIONS 8085 AND 8086.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE LAST TWO DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 SEP to 21 SEP
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 SEP 088
  Predicted   19 SEP-21 SEP  086/082/082
  90 Day Mean        18 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 SEP  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP  015/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP  005/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 SEP to 21 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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