Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12/0602-0842Z. A WEAK TYPE II WAS DETECTED BETWEEN 12/0613-0623Z. A CORONAL MORETON WAVE WAS OBSERVED FROM REGION 8092 (N27W07) NEAR THE END OF THE LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT. CORONAGRAPH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME CORONAL ACTIVITY DURING AND AFTER THIS EVENT BUT NO HALO SIGNATURE WAS SEEN. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N33E43 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8095.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF C-CLASS EVENTS FROM CURRENT DISK REGIONS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A QUIET FLOW IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 14-15 OCT.
III. Event Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 OCT 089
  Predicted   13 OCT-15 OCT  089/090/090
  90 Day Mean        12 OCT 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 OCT  022/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT  010/012-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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