Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

********** CORRECTED COPY ********** SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8097 (N16W14) IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND HAS REMAINED STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY'S C3/SF EVENT. A NEW REGION MAY BE EMERGING NEAR S24E30.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RECORDED AT FREDERICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL 22/0000-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON DAY THREE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAY'S LONG DURATION C3/SF AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 23 OCT to 25 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 OCT 081
  Predicted   23 OCT-25 OCT  081/079/078
  90 Day Mean        22 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  005/008-015/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 OCT to 25 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%40%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%50%
Minor storm05%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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