Viewing archive of Friday, 31 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. OF THE FEW FLARES THAT OCCURRED, THE LARGEST WAS A B4/OF FROM REGION 8100 (S20E15) AT 1938Z. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8101 (S19W70) EMERGED MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 8100 IS STILL THOUGHT TO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MILDLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GOES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AROUND 1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 01 NOV to 03 NOV
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 OCT 091
  Predicted   01 NOV-03 NOV  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        31 OCT 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 OCT  005/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 OCT  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 NOV-03 NOV  005/008-005/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 NOV to 03 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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