Viewing archive of Friday, 14 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E67)
PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES TODAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF LONG
DURATION EVENT AT 14/1038Z. SPACE-BASED SENSORS DETECTED A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION PARTIAL HALO EVENT OFF THE NE LIMB THAT CAN BE
CORRELATED WITH THIS EVENT. THE OTHER EVENT WAS A C3/SF FLARE WITH
AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AT 14/0131Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO
GROW AS IT ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. AN UNCORRELATED C1 EVENT
WAS ALSO DETECTED AT 14/0713Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE
PRODUCTION AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 NOV 093 Predicted 15 NOV-17 NOV 094/096/096 90 Day Mean 14 NOV 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV 008/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV 005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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