Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8313 (N20W16) PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REGION DECLINED IN SPOT COUNT
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT RETAINED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC
STRUCTURE. NEW REGION 8114 (S30E04) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8113 IS CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY. THE
REGION COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 DEC 112 Predicted 04 DEC-06 DEC 110/108/106 90 Day Mean 03 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 DEC to 06 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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