Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 XRAY BURSTS
WERE DETECTED. REGION 8113 (N21W55) CONTINUED TO DECAY AS IT NEARED
THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A CAO GROUP OF 7
SPOTS IN A SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8115 (N33W34)
SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. REGION 8116 (N26E27) DISPLAYED
SLIGHT GROWTH AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A CRO GROUP OF ONLY 4 SPOTS.
ALL REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY QUIET. THE LARGE FILAMENT STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE VISIBLE DISK LOST CONSIDERABLE MASS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION SIGNATURE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8113 STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS FLARING AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
MINOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT FURTHER DECAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 DEC to 09 DEC
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 DEC 109 Predicted 07 DEC-09 DEC 104/104/100 90 Day Mean 06 DEC 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 DEC 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 DEC to 09 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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