Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8131 (S22W22), STILL SLOWLY GROWING, PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 14/1311Z, A C4/SF FLARE AT 14/1603Z, AND A C2/SF FLARE AT 14/2038Z. REGION 8135 (S17E56), A 2 SPOT BXO, REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET. A SERIES OF TEN UNCORELATED B-CLASS XRAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGION 8131 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION AND A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MID LATITUDES AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, IN RESPONSE TO TWO MINOR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DETECTED ON 11 AND 12 JANUARY. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JAN to 17 JAN
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 JAN 094
  Predicted   15 JAN-17 JAN  094/096/096
  90 Day Mean        14 JAN 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN  005/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN  010/008-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JAN to 17 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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