Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8156 (S25W09) CONTINUES TO GROW AND IS NOW A MODERATELY SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE SINCE YESTERDAY WAS A C3 AT 16/0326Z. NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. REGION 8161 (N25E54) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN REGION 8156. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 FEB 107
  Predicted   17 FEB-19 FEB  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        16 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  005/005-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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