Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8156 (S25W09) CONTINUES
TO GROW AND IS NOW A MODERATELY SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. THE
LARGEST X-RAY FLARE SINCE YESTERDAY WAS A C3 AT 16/0326Z. NO OPTICAL
FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. REGION 8161 (N25E54) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN REGION 8156. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION IS POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 FEB 107 Predicted 17 FEB-19 FEB 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 16 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB 002/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB 005/005-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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