Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 March 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A M1/3N LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRED AT 27/2227Z FROM REGION 8185 (S26W15). A HALO/CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED WHICH COINCIDES WITH THIS EVENT. A C4/SF EVENT AT 28/0717Z OCCURRED FROM REGION 8183 (N22W73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8185 STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY AS A RESULT OF THE M2/3N HALO/CME ON 27/2227Z.
III. Event Probabilities 29 MAR to 31 MAR
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 MAR 104
  Predicted   29 MAR-31 MAR  102/100/098
  90 Day Mean        28 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAR  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAR-31 MAR  010/015-010/012-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 MAR to 31 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%35%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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