Viewing archive of Friday, 3 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8190 (S20W02) PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES AND APPEARED TO STABILIZE AS A SMALL E-TYPE GROUP. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AS WELL. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A INCREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST BASED UPON THE EXPECTED RETURN OF HISTORICALLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES (OLD REGION 8179).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
Class M10%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 APR 104
  Predicted   04 APR-06 APR  106/110/114
  90 Day Mean        03 APR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  001/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  005/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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