Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8203 (N31W24) GREW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA AND IS NOW A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH EMBEDDED ARCH-FILAMENTS. THE REGION PRODUCED A C8/SF AT 0746Z, A C8/SF AT 1233Z, AND TOGETHER WITH REGION 8198 (S29W31), A C9 X-RAY BURST AT 1511Z. FREQUENT DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE, WITH REGION 8203 THE MAIN ACTIVE CENTER.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 APR 113
  Predicted   16 APR-18 APR  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        15 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  010/008-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%10%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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