Viewing archive of Friday, 1 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8214 (N26E34) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT 1300 UT. REGION 8214 IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WHITE LIGHT AND HAS BECOME MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA). REGION 8210 (S17W09) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, AND HAS DEVELOPED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. NUMEROUS SMALL RADIO BURSTS AND TYPE III SWEEPS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, BUT SATELLITE AND GROUND-BASED IMAGES IN SEVERAL WAVELENGTHS INDICATE THAT ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8194, WILL SOON APPEAR OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8210 AND 8214 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF M-CLASS OR LARGER X-RAY FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 02 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF AN M6/HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 29 APRIL. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 MAY to 04 MAY
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 MAY 113
  Predicted   02 MAY-04 MAY  120/130/140
  90 Day Mean        01 MAY 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY  030/027-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 MAY to 04 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%05%
Minor storm35%15%01%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%

All times in UTC

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