Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8220 (S27E34) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C2/SF AT 14/1350Z. THIS REGION HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8218 (S21W31) ALSO PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY: A C1/SF AT 13/2225Z AND A C1/SF AT 14/1033Z. THIS REGION HAS ALSO DECAYED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN REGIONS 8218, 8220, AND 8222.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 MAY 117
  Predicted   15 MAY-17 MAY  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        14 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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