Viewing archive of Friday, 5 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8232 (S18E34) PRODUCED A
HANDFUL OF C1/SF FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS REGION IS NOW
MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA-GAMMA. REGION 8033 (N28E36)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUBFLARES. THREE MODERATE SIZE FILAMENTS IN
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE FADED OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS
BEGINNING EARLY ON 05 JUN. AN EXTENSIVE POST-ERUPTION ARCADE WAS
OBSERVED IN BOTH EUV AND X-RAYS FOLLOWING THE FILAMENT DISRUPTIONS.
A CME FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WAS ALSO OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY
HOURS OF 05 JUN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8232 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
WERE UNDER 400 KM/S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. A VERY WEAK
ENHANCEMENT OF THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BEGAN NEAR 04/2000Z AND
RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 09 JUN IN RESPONSE TO THE FILAMENT
DISRUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUN to 08 JUN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JUN 115 Predicted 06 JUN-08 JUN 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 05 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN 007/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN 008/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN 010/012-007/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUN to 08 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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