Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE. A LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 11/0014UT AND A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 11/1027UT. BOTH ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE NE LIMB IN CONJUNCTION WITH X-RAY LOOPS VISIBLE IN THE LASCO/EIT IMAGES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ON 12 JUN WHEN OLD REGION 8226 (N18 L-210) IS DUE TO RETURN. THAT REGION COULD POSSIBLY BE THE SOURCE OF THE X-RAY LOOPS ON THE NE LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ONLY ONE ACTIVE PERIOD (K=4) OCCURRING 10/2100-2400UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JUN to 14 JUN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JUN 112
  Predicted   12 JUN-14 JUN  115/120/122
  90 Day Mean        11 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  016/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  010/010-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JUN to 14 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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