Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8293 (S22E22) AND 8296 (N17E58) PRODUCED MOST OF THE PERIOD'S FLARES, THE LARGEST BEING IN THE LOW C-CLASS RANGE. THE DAY'S MOST SPECTACULAR ACTIVITY OCCURRED NEAR N14 AT EAST LIMB WHERE A SPRAY WAS OBSERVED AT APPROXIMATELY 1605Z. THIS EVENT MEASURED C-2 IN X-RAYS, AND INCLUDED TYPES II AND IV SWEEP. ADDITIONAL SURGING WAS SEEN NEAR N26E90, MAKING PERHAPS TWO NEW REGIONS COMING INTO VIEW. ONE NEW REGION, 8297 (N30E73) APPEARED AS A SINGLE MATURE SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN REGION 8293 MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS REGION NOW SHOWS A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND MAY PRODUCE MAJOR FLARES IF THESE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION, EAST LIMB MAY PROVIDE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO STORM LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TRANSIENT STRUCTURE WAS SEEN TO PASS ACE BEGINNING AT APPROXIMATELY 0644Z. THE MASS EJECTION WAS CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED SOUTHWARD BZ OF APPROXIMATELY -20 NT FOR A FEW HOURS TO FOLLOW. A WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED IN THE EUROPEAN SECTOR AT 0736Z, AND SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. K INDICES OF 8 AND 9 WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LATITUDES AND SLIGHTLY LESSER VALUES WERE SEEN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WANED BY 1800Z TO QUIET CONDITIONS AT BOULDER. THIS CME MAY BE RELATED TO SOLAR ACTIVITY WITH TYPES II AND IV SWEEP IN THE EARLY HOURS OF AUGUST 1.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. EPISODES OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR THE NEXT DAY. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD END THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 AUG to 09 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 AUG 138
  Predicted   07 AUG-09 AUG  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        06 AUG 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 AUG  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG  040/070
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG  015/030-005/018-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 AUG to 09 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%05%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm40%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%

All times in UTC

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