Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 August 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 AUG 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG DURATION M3
X-RAY FLARE AT 16/1821Z. THERE WERE CORRESPONDING TYPE II AND IV
SWEEPS FOR THIS EVENT BUT NO OPTICAL FLARES. THE REST OF THE DAY'S
ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MAIN ACTIVE REGION WAS 8299 (N17W40) WHICH HAS
BEEN SHOWING NEARLY CONTINUOUS PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SOME OPTICAL
SUBFLARES. THE OTHER ACTIVITY NOTED WAS SOME SURGING ON THE WEST
LIMB AS REGION 8300 (S27W96) ROTATED OVER. THE REST OF THE REGIONS
WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY HIGH, IN THE RANGE OF B6 TO B9 FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 AUG 140 Predicted 17 AUG-19 AUG 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 16 AUG 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG 010/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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