Viewing archive of Friday, 4 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO LOW LEVELS. THREE C-CLASS
X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED, ONE OF WHICH WAS OPTICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBFLARE IN REGION 8326 (N18E60). REGION 8323 (S22W13) WAS STABLE
AND REMAINED A LARGE SPOT GROUP OF MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW
REGION 8328 (S18E72) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8323. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS WITH BRIEF UNSETTLED
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS BY
THE SECOND DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 SEP 155 Predicted 05 SEP-07 SEP 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 04 SEP 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP 004/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP 006/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP 008/010-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 45sun goes blank 72Space Weather Memes 566Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1209AR13889 143
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |