Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 September 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C6/SF FLARE OCCURRED IN REGION 8340 (N19W82) AT 29/0154UT. A BRIGHT SURGE ON THE LIMB OCCURRED AT 0945UT FROM REGION 8339 (S12W90). A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT OCCURRED FROM REGION 8345 (N22W71) EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT HAS REGAINED MASS AND FORM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS HAVE REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
Class M40%40%25%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 SEP 116
  Predicted   30 SEP-02 OCT  114/118/122
  90 Day Mean        29 SEP 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  008/008-008/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm11%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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