Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C9/1F FLARE WAS OBSERVED
FROM REGION 8358 (N16W55) AT 17/1851UT. REGION 8364 (N18E24), A
4-SPOT BETA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS DUE TO THE 15 OCT CME.
III. Event Probabilities 18 OCT to 20 OCT
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 OCT 135 Predicted 18 OCT-20 OCT 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 17 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 OCT 008/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 OCT 011/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 OCT-20 OCT 015/020-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 OCT to 20 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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