Viewing archive of Friday, 20 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8391 (S17E34) PRODUCED
TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE, A C2/SF AT 1524Z. THE REGION WAS GROWING
SLOWLY AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8384 (S28W62)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK BUT COULD ONLY
PRODUCE LOW LEVEL SUBFLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WAS AN INTERVAL OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 NOV to 23 NOV
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 NOV 122 Predicted 21 NOV-23 NOV 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 20 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV 010/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 NOV to 23 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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