Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8395 (N17E56) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD - A C4/1F AT 26/1039Z. THIS REGION'S
LIMB PROXIMITY IS STILL PREVENTING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS; HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS NOW AS A MODERATELY COMPLEX, BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION
COVERING 420 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGIONS 8392 (S23E08)
AND 8393 (S19E38) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND LOW C-CLASS BURSTS
BUT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE OR COMPLEXITY. A 22 DEGREE FILAMENT
ERUPTED NEAR N63E53 EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8396 (N28W45)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A D-TYPE GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH REGION 8395 HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY MAJOR
ACTIVITY, ITS SIZE AND COMPLEXITY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR
M-CLASS FLARES. REGIONS 8392, 8393, AND NEW REGION 8396 ARE ALL
CAPABLE OF C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 NOV 156 Predicted 27 NOV-29 NOV 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 26 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV 015/015-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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