Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FIVE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST WAS A C7/1F EVENT FROM
REGION 8404 (S23W26) AT 08/1833Z. A CME WAS OBSERVED FROM A LARGE
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE NORTH EAST LIMB AROUND 08/1542Z. NEW
REGION 8407 (S18E05) WAS NUMBERED, AND IS CURRENTLY A CAO BETA
GROUP. REGIONS 8404 AND 8405 HAVE SHOWN CONTINUED GROWTH SINCE
YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO
TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CME ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB
THAT OCCURRED AROUND 08/1542Z DUE TO ITS POSITION (SEE PART IA
ABOVE).
III. Event Probabilities 09 DEC to 11 DEC
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 DEC 162 Predicted 09 DEC-11 DEC 164/162/162 90 Day Mean 08 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC 008/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 DEC to 11 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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