Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 December 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8419 (N27W14) PRODUCED TWO, REGION 8421 (N26E40) PRODUCED THREE, REGION 8422 (S23E51) WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONE, AND ONE WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK IS REGION 8421 WHICH IS A DAI BETA GROUP WITH AN AREA OF 270 MILLIONTHS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF THE LONG DURATION M2 WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP THAT OCCURRED JUST BEHIND THE NORTH EAST LIMB ON 23 DECEMBER AT 0659Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 DEC to 29 DEC
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 DEC 145
  Predicted   27 DEC-29 DEC  150/154/154
  90 Day Mean        26 DEC 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 DEC  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 DEC  020/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 DEC-29 DEC  005/012-005/009-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 DEC to 29 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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