Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED, BUT REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS.
TODAY'S MOST ENERGETIC EVENT WAS A LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE FROM
REGION 8422 (S23W50) ASSOCIATED WITH AN 18-DEGREE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE AND A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. OBSERVATORIES REPORTED
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT WITHIN THE FILAMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
THE DISAPPEARANCE. HOWEVER, REGION 8422 SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND REMAINED A SMALL, SIMPLE SPOT GROUP. REGION 8421
(N26W65) SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINED A LARGE, MAGNETICALLY
COMPLEX GROUP. IT PRODUCED AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT WAS OTHERWISE STABLE. NEW REGION 8430 (S25E50) WAS
NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JAN to 06 JAN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 JAN 155 Predicted 04 JAN-06 JAN 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 03 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JAN 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JAN 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JAN-06 JAN 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JAN to 06 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 525AR 13901 110AR 13903 1Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1246Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |