Viewing archive of Monday, 18 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JAN 1999
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE
M-CLASS EVENT, AN M2/1N FLARE AT 18/0804UT, FROM REGION 8440
(S18E64). REGIONS 8439 (S24E00) AND 8440 WERE THE MOST ACTIVE
REGIONS, BOTH PRODUCING NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8442
(N25W28) HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD, PRODUCING A
C1/SF AT 18/1839UT. REGION 8442 HAS ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE
NUMBER OF SPOTS FROM 8 TO 15 AND A CHANGE IN MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION
FROM A SIMPLE BETA TO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY; 8443 (S18E64). CURRENTLY A 3 SPOT BXO BETA SPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS A HIGH LEVELS FOR THE DAY
UNTIL AROUND 18/1900UT WHEN IT DROPPED WELL BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JAN to 21 JAN
Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 JAN 171
Predicted 19 JAN-21 JAN 175/180/185
90 Day Mean 18 JAN 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN 005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN 005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN 008/010-008/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JAN to 21 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
<< Go to daily overview page