Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8450 (N21W18) EMERGED DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C3/2F PARALLEL RIBBON FLARE AT 27/1654Z. A LARGE PART OF THE MATERIAL IN A NEARBY FILAMENT FADED DURING THE EVENT. NO RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE STABLE OR EXHIBITED SLIGHT DECAY. THERE WERE SOME SOFT X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LIMB DURING THE PERIOD WHERE OLD REGION 8439 COMPLETED ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT TWO DAYS AGO.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR 28-29 JAN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, VERY LOW LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON 30 JAN.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VELOCITY AND BZ WAS SOUTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
Class M10%05%05%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 JAN 125
  Predicted   28 JAN-30 JAN  118/112/110
  90 Day Mean        27 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN  010/008-010/007-010/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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