Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 February 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG-DURATION C5 EVENT OCCURRED FROM 0624 TO 0758Z. X-RAY IMAGE DATA INDICATED THAT THE SOURCE OF THE ENHANCED X-RAYS WAS FROM BEHIND THE NORTHWEST LIMB. REGION 8453 (S26E19) CONTINUED TO GROW SLOWLY TODAY AND IS THE ONLY SUNSPOT REGION CURRENTLY ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT 1400Z. AFTER 1400Z UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGAN AND CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY HAS MOVED UP TO VALUES 50 PERCENT ABOVE THE 300 KM/S VALUES OF EARLY TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR TOMORROW AND TREND TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 FEB 107
  Predicted   05 FEB-07 FEB  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        04 FEB 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB  015/010-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active22%18%06%
Minor storm17%17%03%
Major-severe storm00%00%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active22%18%06%
Minor storm20%20%03%
Major-severe storm04%04%02%

All times in UTC

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