Viewing archive of Friday, 19 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. JUST ISOLATED, SMALL, C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED, AS THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIONS ON THE DISK
WAS THAT OF DECAY. EIGHT SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE BEING 8458 (S23W61). THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE PAST 24
HOURS. MAJOR STORMING WHICH BEGAN EARLY YESTERDAY HAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDED. THE RADIAL SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL IN EXCESS OF 500
KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE TO HIGH
LEVELS MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT
REACHES QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAY 2. THE LAST DAY OF THE
INTERVAL MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN AS A HIGH SPEED
STREAM FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE IS DUE.
III. Event Probabilities 20 FEB to 22 FEB
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 FEB 164 Predicted 20 FEB-22 FEB 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 19 FEB 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB 041/054 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB 035/035 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB 015/020-005/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 FEB to 22 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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