Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 March 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS SUBFLARES: THE FIRST WAS A C2/1F AT 1830Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C1/SF AT 2010Z. THE GROUP IS AN ACTIVE, BUT RELATIVELY SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT REGION. REGION 8485 (N22E53) SHOWED FREQUENT BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT ONLY PRODUCED ONE SUB-FAINT FLARE. THE OTHER SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM 8484 OR 8477 (S28W33).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO STORM LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD BECAME ACTIVE AROUND 09/0000UT, AND INTENSIFIED TO MINOR STORM (WITH SOME HIGH LATITUDE MAJOR STORM PERIODS) BETWEEN 0600-1330 UT. CONDITIONS SUBSIDED GRADUALLY, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 09/2100Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 10 MAR to 12 MAR
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 MAR 127
  Predicted   10 MAR-12 MAR  135/145/150
  90 Day Mean        09 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAR  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAR-12 MAR  010/012-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 MAR to 12 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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