Viewing archive of Monday, 15 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8487 (N16E11) SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN AREA AND MAGNETIC FIELD
INTENSITY AND PRODUCED AN M1/1N PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 15/0336Z
ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. SLOW GROWTH IN PENUMBRAL
COVERAGE AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY ALSO OCCURRED WITHIN REGION
8485 (N23W25). IT REMAINED A LARGE F-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH MIXED
POLARITIES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE
REMAINING SPOT GROUPS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES AND SHOWED A DECREASING TREND AFTER 15/1600Z. RECENT
ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE
WINDSTREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEN DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAR 150 Predicted 16 MAR-18 MAR 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 15 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR 012/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR 015/012-012/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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