Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 April 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8524 (N22W15) PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 29/1954UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/SF AT 29/1741UT. DEVELOPMENT IN THE 8524 AREA HAS MADE IDENTIFICATION OF THE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP JUST TO THE SOUTH, REGION 8522 (N17W14), DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THESE REGIONS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE COMBINED. NEW REGION 8525 (N15E68) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A C2/SF AT 29/0829UT. THE AREA IS STILL COMING INTO VIEW BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COMPLEX. NEW REGION 8526 (N22E35) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGIONS 8524 AND 8525. AN ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8524.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS FROM A HIGH-SPEED STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS.
III. Event Probabilities 30 APR to 02 MAY
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 APR 122
  Predicted   30 APR-02 MAY  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        29 APR 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR  015/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY  015/025-015/030-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 APR to 02 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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